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Rickards, James Society. Currency Rickards. Currency War

Currency War

Currency War I — 1921-1936
Currency War II — 1967-1987
Currency War III — 2010-

The risk is the collapse of the monetary system

Today the risk is the collapse of the monetary system itself — a loss of confidence in paper currencies and a massive flight to hard assets. Given these risks of catastrophic failure, Currency War III may be the last currency war – or, to paraphrase Woodrow Wilson, the war to end all currency wars.

Peter Schiff Speaks to James Rickards

Peter Schiff: In your book, you lay out four possible results from the present currency war. Please briefly describe these and which one do you feel is most likely and why.

James Rickards: Yes, I lay out four scenarios, which I call "The Four Horsemen of the Dollar Apocalypse."

The first case is a world of multiple reserve currencies with the dollar being just one among several. This is the preferred solution of academics. I call it the "Kumbaya Solution" because it assumes all of the currencies will get along fine with each other. In fact, however, instead of one central bank behaving badly, we will have many.

The second case is world money in the form of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). This is the preferred solution of global elites. The foundation for this has already been laid and the plumbing is already in place. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) would have its own printing press under the unaccountable control of the G20. This would reduce the dollar to the role of a local currency, as all important international transfers would be denominated in SDRs.

The third case is a return to the gold standard. This would have to be done at a much higher price to avoid the deflationary blunder of the 1920s, when nations returned to gold at an old parity that could not be sustained without massive deflation due to all of the money-printing in the meantime. I suggest a price of $7,000 per ounce for the new parity.

My final case is chaos and a resort to emergency economic powers. I consider this the most likely because of a combination of denial, delay, and wishful thinking on the part of the monetary elites.

‹…›

Peter: How long do you think Currency War III will last?

James: History shows that Currency War I lasted 15 years and Currency War II lasted 20 years. There is no reason to believe that Currency War III will be brief. It's difficult to say, but it should last 5 years at least, possibly much longer.

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